Baccarat Odds and House Edge: Exact Figures
Baccarat’s odds are fixed by the cards and the third-card rules, so every probability can be calculated exactly. The figures on this page were computed by enumerating every possible deal from a full 8-deck shoe (416 cards), the standard for online and live punto banco. They match the widely published values. The headline: Banker carries a 1.06% house edge, Player 1.24%, and the Tie 14.36% at 8:1. This page is part of our baccarat guide.
Main Bet Probabilities (8 Decks)
| Outcome | Probability | Probability excluding ties |
|---|---|---|
| Banker wins | 45.86% | 50.68% |
| Player wins | 44.62% | 49.32% |
| Tie | 9.52% | — |
Banker wins more often because it acts after the Player and its drawing rules respond to the Player’s third card.
House Edge by Bet
| Bet | Payout | House edge | House edge excluding ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 0.95:1 (5% commission) | 1.06% | 1.17% |
| Player | 1:1 | 1.24% | 1.36% |
| Tie | 8:1 | 14.36% | — |
| Tie | 9:1 | 4.84% | — |
| Banker, no-commission (6 pays 1:2) | 1:1, 0.5:1 on Banker 6 | 1.46% | — |
| Banker with 4% commission | 0.96:1 | 0.60% | — |
Online game info screens usually show these as RTP (100% minus house edge): Banker 98.94%, Player 98.76%, Tie at 8:1 85.64%, Tie at 9:1 95.16% and no-commission Banker 98.54%. If a baccarat game lists noticeably lower main-bet RTPs, it is using different rules or payouts, and the help screen should explain which.
The “excluding ties” figures measure cost per resolved bet; the standard figures measure cost per hand dealt. Both are used in published tables, so check which one a source quotes.
How Hands End (8 Decks)
| Event | Probability |
|---|---|
| Player has a natural (8 or 9) | 18.94% |
| Banker has a natural | 18.94% |
| At least one natural (hand ends after four cards) | 34.30% |
| Player draws a third card | 50.34% |
| Banker draws a third card | 43.54% |
| Both draw (six cards dealt) | 31.77% |
| Only four cards dealt in total | 37.89% |
Player and Banker have identical chances of a natural because the first four cards are dealt the same way. The Banker’s advantage comes entirely from the drawing stage, when it acts with knowledge of the Player’s third card.
Why the Tie Is Expensive
A tie occurs 9.52% of the time, about once in 10.5 hands. A fair payout would be about 9.5:1. At 8:1 the expected value per A$1 is 9.52% × 8 − 90.48% × 1 = −14.36%. At 9:1 it is −4.84%: better, but still more than four times the Banker edge.
No-Commission Banker
On no-commission tables, Banker wins pay 1:1 except when the Banker wins with a total of 6, which pays 1:2. A Banker win on 6 happens about 5.39% of the time. Removing the commission on all other Banker wins does not compensate for halving those payouts, and the edge rises from 1.06% to 1.46%. The difference is small per hand but adds up: on A$20,000 of Banker bets, it is about A$80 more in expected loss.
Side Bet Odds (8 Decks)
| Side bet | Payout | Probability | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Player Pair (or Banker Pair) | 11:1 | 7.47% | 10.36% |
| Either Pair | 5:1 | 14.38% | 13.71% |
| Perfect Pair (one hand / both hands) | 25:1 / 200:1 | 3.32% / 0.03% | 8.05% |
| Dragon Bonus on Player | 1:1 to 30:1 by margin | — | 2.65% |
| Dragon Bonus on Banker | 1:1 to 30:1 by margin | — | 9.37% |
Pair and Dragon Bonus figures were calculated from the shoe composition using the common paytables. Paytables vary between providers; see baccarat side bets for details.
Cost per Hour
Expected loss = stake × hands × house edge.
| Bet | Stake | Assumed hands per hour | Expected loss per hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker (5% commission) | A$20 | 60 | A$12.72 |
| Player | A$20 | 60 | A$14.88 |
| Banker, no-commission | A$20 | 60 | A$17.52 |
| Tie (8:1) | A$20 | 60 | A$172.32 |
| Banker on a speed table | A$20 | 120 | A$25.44 |
Speed tables deal faster, so at the same stake they cost more per hour; see speed baccarat.
Streaks and Variance
Baccarat is a low-variance game on the main bets: each resolved bet is close to a coin flip. Probabilities of streaks for the Banker side, counting only resolved hands (50.68%):
| Streak | Probability for any given run |
|---|---|
| 5 Banker wins in a row | 3.34% |
| 5 Player wins in a row | 2.92% |
| 8 losses in a row betting Banker | 0.35% |
Streaks are normal. They do not change the next hand’s odds in any way a player can use. See gambler’s fallacy.
Does Card Counting Work in Baccarat?
Card removal affects the next hand slightly, but for the main bets the effect is too small to overcome the house edge in practice. Card-removal calculations show that a player edge on Banker or Player arises only rarely, near the end of a shoe, and is small when it does. Live tables often cut the shoe well before the end, and RNG games reshuffle each round. Pair and Tie side bets are more sensitive to composition, but the gains are still small. Counting is more useful in blackjack.
Baccarat Compared with Other Games
| Game and bet | House edge |
|---|---|
| Blackjack, basic strategy (3:2, S17) | about 0.4%–0.6% |
| Baccarat, Banker | 1.06% |
| Baccarat, Player | 1.24% |
| French roulette, even-money with La Partage | 1.35% |
| European roulette | 2.70% |
| American roulette | 5.26% |
More context: roulette odds, blackjack house edge and house edge explained.
Frequently Asked Questions
1.06% with 5% commission in an 8-deck game. On no-commission tables where Banker 6 pays half, it is 1.46%.
45.86% of all hands and 50.68% of hands that are not ties, in an 8-deck shoe.
No. It has a 14.36% house edge at 8:1 and 4.84% at 9:1, both far higher than Banker or Player.
Banker, by a small margin: 1.06% house edge versus 1.24%.
Slightly. Published figures for 6 and 8 decks differ only in the second decimal place for the main bets.
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