Pokies Volatility: Low, Medium and High Variance Explained
Volatility (also called variance) describes how a pokie distributes its return. Two games can both have 96% RTP and still feel completely different. A low-volatility game pays small wins often and rarely produces anything above a few hundred times the bet. A high-volatility game pays less often, has long dry stretches, and keeps a large share of its RTP in rare features that can pay thousands of times the bet.
This page is part of our online pokies guide. RTP itself is covered in RTP explained.
The Three Numbers That Reveal Volatility
| Indicator | What to look for | Where to find it |
|---|---|---|
| Official rating | Low / Medium / High, or a scale of bolts, stars or chillies | Game info screen, studio website |
| Hit frequency | Share of spins that pay anything; higher usually means lower volatility | Some studios publish it (NetEnt does) |
| Maximum win | 1,000x suggests a contained game; 50,000x+ means value sits in rare events | Paytable or rules |
A game cannot pay 100,000x the bet occasionally and still pay out frequently at the same RTP. The money for the rare large wins has to come from somewhere, and it comes from fewer and smaller wins on ordinary spins.
Real Examples Across the Range
Figures below come from the studios’ own ratings and rules, as listed in our reviews.
| Pokie | Studio rating | RTP | Hit frequency | Maximum win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweet Bonanza | Low | 96.49% | not published | 21,100x |
| Blood Suckers | Medium | 98.00% | 45% | 900x |
| Starburst | Medium | 96.08% | 23% | 800x |
| Twin Spin | Medium | 96.55% | 28% | 1,000x |
| Gonzo’s Quest | Medium | 95.97% | 41% | 2,200x |
| Gates of Olympus | Medium | 96.50% | not published | 5,000x |
| Dead or Alive 2 | High | 96.80% | 30% | 100,000x |
| Money Train 2 | High | 96.40% | not published | 50,000x |
| Mental | Insane (Nolimit City scale) | 96.08% | 34.19% | 66,666x |
| Tombstone RIP | Insane (Nolimit City scale) | 96.08% | 9.08% | 300,000x |
Two points stand out. First, hit frequency alone can mislead: Dead or Alive 2 pays on 30% of spins and Mental on 34.19%, both more than Starburst, yet most of those wins are tiny and the value sits in the free spins. Tombstone RIP shows the other extreme: only 9.08% of spins pay anything, and Nolimit City lists free spins at about 1 in 194 spins. Second, studio ratings are not standardised. Pragmatic Play rates Sweet Bonanza as low volatility despite a 21,100x cap, so check the max win as well as the label.
What Each Level Feels Like in a Session
Low volatility
Frequent small wins, often below the stake, which slow the decline of a balance. Long sessions on a small budget are realistic. Large wins are uncommon, and the game rarely changes a session’s outcome in a single spin.
Medium volatility
A mix of regular line wins and features that typically pay tens to a few hundred times the bet. Most classic NetEnt titles such as Starburst, Twin Spin and Jack and the Beanstalk sit here.
High and extreme volatility
Hundreds of spins without a meaningful win are normal. The base game often returns well below the RTP, and the remaining return is concentrated in free spins or bonus rounds. Nolimit City titles such as San Quentin xWays and Folsom Prison are built this way, with maximum wins of 75,000x to 150,000x. Many sessions end without the feature at all.
Sizing Your Bankroll to Volatility
The expected loss per spin is the same at equal RTP, but the risk of running out of money before a feature lands is much higher on volatile games. A practical sizing rule:
| Volatility | Spins your budget should cover | Stake on a A$100 budget | Stake on a A$300 budget |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 150+ | up to A$0.60 | up to A$2.00 |
| Medium | 200+ | up to A$0.50 | up to A$1.50 |
| High | 300+ | up to A$0.30 | up to A$1.00 |
| Extreme / Insane | 400+ | up to A$0.25 | up to A$0.75 |
These are planning figures, not guarantees: even 400 spins on an extreme game can pass without a bonus. Our bankroll management guide covers loss limits and stop points in more detail.
Volatility and Bonuses
Wagering requirements interact strongly with volatility. To clear 35x wagering on a A$100 bonus you need A$3,500 of turnover. On a high-volatility game the balance is more likely to hit zero before the requirement is met; on a low-volatility game it is more likely to survive, but less likely to grow. The trade-off is explained in wagering requirements. Many casinos also exclude the most volatile titles from bonus play, so check the excluded games list.
Features That Increase Volatility
- Bonus buy: paying 100x or more for instant free spins concentrates risk into one event. See bonus buy pokies.
- Ante bets: a higher stake for increased feature frequency (for example in Gates of Olympus) makes swings larger.
- Multipliers without a cap: such as the free spins multiplier in Bonanza Megaways, which grows by +1 per cascade.
- Progressive jackpots: part of the RTP is reserved for a rare jackpot; see progressive jackpots.
How to Choose
- Decide your session budget and how long you want it to last.
- Divide the budget by the number of spins from the table above to get a stake.
- If that stake is below the game’s minimum bet, choose a lower-volatility game instead.
- Test the game in demo mode for 200 spins to see how often it pays.
Casinos with large libraries across all volatility levels are compared on our pokies sites page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Neither is better in terms of expected value; with equal RTP, both lose the same amount on average. Low volatility suits longer sessions on a small budget. High volatility suits players who accept long losing runs in exchange for a chance at rare large wins.
Many studios print it in the info screen, often as a scale such as 1 to 5 bolts, or as Low, Medium, High. NetEnt, Pragmatic Play and Push Gaming rate their games officially; Nolimit City uses labels up to Insane. If no rating is given, a very high maximum win and a low hit frequency are signs of high volatility.
No. They are separate properties. Volatility describes how the return is distributed between frequent small wins and rare large ones. The RTP is the long-run average of that distribution.
A practical rule is at least 150 to 200 spins for low and medium volatility and 300 or more for high volatility. With a A$100 budget, that means about A$0.50 per spin on a medium game and A$0.30 or less on a high-volatility game.
No, but they are related. Hit frequency is the share of spins that return any win. Volatility also depends on how big those wins are and how much of the RTP comes from rare features.
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